October 2, 2016
Hurricane Matthew Aims At Haiti
It's a long time since the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season started way back in January as Hurricane Alex headed for Greenland.
Today we bring you news of Hurricane Matthew, who swept through the Lesser Antilles into the Caribbean Sea as a mere tropical storm but has now turned north and strengthened into a major hurricane. Matthew briefly reached category 5 status yesterday with sustained wind speeds of 160 miles per hour, but those winds have dropped down to a mere 150 mph this morning. Like Alex, Matthew has several claims to fame, most notably as the southernmost category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic, at 13.3° north. Here's the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center:
As you can see, there are hurricane warnings already in place for Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. There is always some uncertainty over the forecast track of any hurricane. In this case that can be gauged by looking at the current NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ensemble forecast for Matthew:
At the moment it seems highly likely that Matthew's eye will pass over western Haiti before passing close to or over Eastern Cuba and then heading in the general direction of the east coast of the United States. It's far too early to say with certainty whether Matthew will make landfall on the mainland of the United States of America, but here is the Global Forecast System's best guess for 138 hours from 6 AM this morning:
Here's how Matthew looked from the Suomi satellite yesterday afternoon:
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Here's the latest Matthew ensemble:
He's edging closer to the eastern seaboard.
The latest image of Matthew from space, this time courtesy of the MODIS instrument aboard the Terra satellite:
The latest NHC forecast track for Matthew:
and the latest GFDL ensemble forecast:
Hurricane Matthew has passed over a NOAA buoy in the Caribbean:
I make 27.87 inches of mercury equal to 944 hPa. Here too are the latest NHC forecast track:
and GFDL ensemble forecast:
This morning the mainstream media have started to mention Haiti in their headlines. According to the BBC:
The latest updates reveal an increased likelihood that the eye of Matthew may just miss Western Haiti, but make landfall in North Carolina:
Even if Haiti escapes a direct hit from Matthew, the forecast is still awful:
The latest forecasts show Matthew's track edging ever closer to Florida:
The latest public advisory bulletin from the NHC states that:
The latest track forecasts suggest that the United States should now also expect some severe weather, and possibly also landfall:
Interim update 25A from the NHC reports that:
A report on Matthew's arrival in Haiti from Al Jazeera:
Last night's update 27A from the NHC reported:
Here's a satellite image of Matthew taken shortly after his eye had crossed the far west of Haiti:
Interim update 30A from the NHC reports that:
The latest NHC forecast track:
and GFDL ensemble forecast:
now suggest that Matthew may hug the US coast all the way from Florida to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Meanwhile ShelterBox report from Haiti that:
According to an ITN news report:
As we have previously reported, cholera is an ever present danger in Haiti. Expect deaths from the disease to far exceed those from the direct consequences of Matthew's passage over the coming months.
According to an Al Jazeera news report:
Here's the situation on the ground in Jérémie, the "City of Poets":
Here are the latest annual cholera statistics from the Haitian Ministry of Health, dated September 25th 2016: