January 13, 2016
Subtropical Storm Alex Arrives in the North Atlantic
Further to our recent news about the unseasonally early formation of Hurricane Pali in the Pacific the National Hurricane Center has just announced that:
OUT OF SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC…SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…27.1N 30.8W
ABOUT 785 MI…1260 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.24 INCHES
The NHC's forecast discussion concerning Alex adds that:
The cyclone is co-located with an upper-level low, and appears to have only a weak warm core, so it is being designated as a subtropical storm.
By 96 hours, the global models show the cyclone merging or becoming absorbed by another extratropical low at high latitudes.
Alex is the first tropical or subtropical storm to form in January since an unnamed system did so in 1978, and is only the fourth known to form in this month in the historical record that begins in 1851.
The NHC suggests that, unlike Pali, Alex may pass near some human habitations:
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Alex.
Here's Alex's current forecast track for the next 5 days:
and here's an image of Alex courtesy of NASA's Aqua satellite, at the same scale as our picture of Pali yesterday:
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Comments on Subtropical Storm Alex Arrives in the North Atlantic »
I have a feeling things may soon become weird
Things are gradually getting weirder Reggie.
Slightly to the south of Alex "Disturbance 1" has now turned red on the NHC's map, with:
As Alex continues to head towards Greenland:
the latest NHC bulletin says:
Meanwhile even as we speak an even larger storm is also heading toward Greenland:
The swell created by all this frantic activity in the North Atlantic is currently forecast by Magic Seaweed to arrive at my local beachbreak on Sunday:
In the latest news from the NHC Alex has been upgraded to a category 1 hurricane:
Here's today's view from on high, courtesy of NASA's Terra satellite:
In their interim bulletin 4A, issued at 18:00 UTC, the NHC summarise the state of play in the North Atlantic as follows:
Their "discussion" goes on to say that:
Remember all the #missing_heat?
Reggie believes it is coming out of the oceans and 2016 will not be kind to what is left of the #arctic_ice
2012 will be repeated #deja_vu_all_over_again
I'm inclined to agree with you about all that heat Reggie. See e.g.:
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/01/new-year-2016-arctic-meltdown-update/#comment-213161
et seq.
The latest NHC discussion about Hurricane Alex states that
For much more on that topic see also:
Is the Son of Storm Frank Heading for the Arctic?
Expect another interim bulletin from the NHC in 3 hours time.
This evening's interim bulletin from the NHC still forecasts hurricane force winds and an associated storm surge for the Azores on Friday: