Teignbridge District Council have decided that an Environmental Impact Assessment WILL be required following a request from Green Switch Solutions Ltd. for a screening opinion concerning a proposed 5.5 MW solar PV park on land at Mamhead House. The case officer's letter points out that:

In such a sensitive location you are likely to encounter significant obstacles to gaining support from officers for reasons which I trust are explained in this letter.

The sensitivity of the location is explained as follows:

The development would be wholly sited within a Grade II* Listed Park and Garden (Mamhead) that is located within an Area of Great Landscape Value and is therefore likely have a significant landscape impact;

The site is considered to be within the setting of a significant number of important Listed buildings including the Grade I Listed Mamhead House, numerous Grade II* Listed buildings including Mamhead Castle and several Grade II Listed buildings at Home Farm and Brinshill and is likely to have a significant impact on those settings; and

The development has the potential to have a significant impact on a high number of heritage assets such that significant effect on the environment is highly likely.

Apart from this proposal to construct yet another solar farm visible from the viewpoint by the Mamhead Obelisk another two screening opinion requests have also recently been received by Teignbridge District Council. The first is from Kronos Solar Projects GmbH for a 25 hectare solar PV park at Lower Rixdale Farm between Luton and Ashcombe. The second is for a 4 MW installation at Appletree Close in Chudleigh Knighton.

The National Hurricane Center is one of the few US Government agencies still working normally during the current "shutdown". As they point out on their web site:

Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown.

In a public advisory bulletin issued at 13:00 UTC yesterday the NHC reported that Tropical Storm Karen had formed. In their most recent bulletin about Karen at 09:00 UTC this morning they say about her that:

LOCATION: 24.9N 89.8W, ABOUT 295 MI (470 KM) S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH (95 KM/H)
PRESENT MOVEMENT: NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH (17 KM/H)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES)

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

Here's Karen's current forecast track for the next 5 days:

NHC forecast track for Tropical Storm Karen at 04:00 CDT on Friday October 4th, 2013

As you can see, at the moment she is forecast to cross the Gulf coast without quite reaching hurricane intensity. Nevertheless, the NHC bulletin goes on to say:

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.

KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT…MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

As recent summers go, we've had a cracker. All that's changing now though. I went for a bike ride earlier this evening, and things were reminiscent of this time last year. The roads were covered in soil and stones washed from the fields. The road along the ridge above here had but a narrow piece of tarmac visible above the brown ponds on either side. Here's a picture I took at the top of the hill:

A misty view of Exeter from afar on October 3rd 2013

Summer has gone, and the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness is with us again. By the time I got home I was thirsty, so I turned on the tap. The water ran brown. I've just refreshed this very web site, and the handy flood warning widget revealed this to me, along with a few reminders from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change about what's going on with our climate:

Environment Agency flood alerts on October 3rd 2013, with some IPCC AR5 WG1 bullet points

I clicked the widget, and sure enough I discovered that there have been five flood alerts issued across South Devon today:

South Devon flood alerts on October 3rd 2013

As you can see, the warning triangles are currently amber, which according to the Environment Agency means:

Flooding is possible. Be prepared.

The Met Office headline for South West England this evening reads:

Further heavy showers tonight but gradually turning brighter tomorrow.

[Update on October 4th – Here's the current Surfers Against Sewage interactive map for South Devon]

Surfers Against Sewage interactive sewage outflow map for South Devon on October 4th 2013

In the wake of the IPCC meeting in Stockholm last week we idly wondered:

When will the world's policymakers stop spouting hot air and start taking practical measures to mitigate the inevitable climate change that we all must now face.

The answer seems to be "not just yet", because in the United States the Democrat and Republican parties are still at loggerheads in Congress over "Obamacare", and as a result many "non-essential" services have been shut down, and getting on for a million US government workers have been told to stay at home. Here's a video report from Al Jazeera on the current state of the nation in the land of the free:

Al Jazeera point out that:

Almost all of the National Space Agency's workers have been told not to come to work. Just 7% of the Environmental Protection Agency's employees will report to work, which will affect the EPA's ability to take legal action against polluters, and the Food and Drug Administration will have to stop some of its food safety inspections.

whilst President Obama said that:

Congress generally has to stop governing by crisis. They have to break this habit. It is a drag on the economy.

Perhaps in a roundabout sort of a way all this is good news for the environment? Much less commuting to work means much less carbon dioxide pumped out of tailpipes. Or maybe Al Jazeera are right, and with nobody keeping watch polluters will pollute even more?

Watch this space for more news, but don't hold your breath. If you can manage it, don't breathe or eat whilst doing so.

According to the Tara Expeditions web site:

Tara is a legendary boat built for extreme conditions.

We last heard of her from Vincent Berthet, who along with Sébastian Roubinet unexpectedly boarded Tara in Pevek, Russia before sailing in her across the Chukchi Sea and then disembarking in Tuktoyaktuk, Canada. Tara then continued from Tuk, sailing along the southern route of the Northwest Passage. In the latest news from Tara this morning, the expedition web site announced:

The Northwest Passage is behind Tara!

That announcement is perhaps slightly premature, since strictly speaking she needs to continue south until the Arctic Circle has been crossed before claiming to have completed her west to east voyage through the Northwest Passage in 2013. Nonetheless she has certainly completed the hard part! Here's what Tara's tracking map shows at the moment:

Tara's track at 07:54 UTC on September 29th 2013

As the map suggests, Tara's next planned port of call is Arctic Bay on Canada's Baffin Island. After that she's heading on to Ilulissat in Greenland, then back to Canada in Québec, before crossing the North Atlantic back to France in plenty of time for Christmas! As luck would have it there was a break in the clouds over Tara's route yesterday, and here's what NASA Worldview reveals of the view from the Aqua satellite:

Aqua satellite view of the CAA on September 28th 2013, using bands 7-2-1

The blue tint to the image is because it is created using Aqua's MODIS sensor bands 1, 2 and 7. In the image open water is dark blue, ice is pale blue and the many clouds are white. As you can see, whichever route Tara chose, she must have come quite close to some sea ice. She nonetheless appears to have emerged unscathed out into the currently ice free Lancaster Sound, and can continue on her journey in increasingly uninhibited fashion. Perhaps this picture gives us a clue to how she managed that feat?

The CCGS Louis S. St-Laurent leads Tara towards Lancaster Sound

As you can see from the first image, the crew of Tara are very interested in what the IPCC were up to in Stockholm last week, as are we. There's sure to be more on that topic from econnexus.org.uk in the near future, as well as on the last stages of Tara's 2013 Arctic circumnavigation.

After all the hullabaloo in the "popular press" recently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC for short) have now started issuing information following the meeting in Stockholm this week discussing the contribution of their Working Group I to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 for short). According to the initial press release:

Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident in most regions of the globe, a new assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. The evidence for this has grown, thanks to more and better observations, an improved understanding of the climate system response and improved climate models. Warming in the climate system is unequivocal and since 1950 many changes have been observed throughout the climate system that are unprecedented over decades to millennia. Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850, reports the Summary for Policymakers of the IPCC Working Group I assessment report, Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis, approved on Friday by member governments of the IPCC in Stockholm, Sweden.

So far only the Summary for Policymakers (SPM for short) has been made publicly available, but according to the press release once again:

The Final Draft of the Working Group I report (version distributed to governments on 7 June 2013), including the Technical Summary, 14 chapters and an Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections, will be released online in unedited form on Monday 30 September.

Whilst we wait with bated breath for that to appear, here is the SPM's long list of bullet points:

Ocean warming dominates the increase in energy stored in the climate system, accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high confidence). It is virtually certain that the upper ocean (0?700 m) warmed from 1971 to 2010, and it likely warmed between the 1870s and 1971.

Over the last two decades, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink almost worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover have continued to decrease in extent (high confidence).

The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia (high confidence). Over the period 1901–2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m.

The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. CO2 concentrations have increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification.

Total radiative forcing is positive, and has led to an uptake of energy by the climate system. The largest contribution to total radiative forcing is caused by the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750.

Preliminary total radiative forcing estimates from the IPCC AR5 WGI SPM

Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system.

Climate models have improved since the AR4. Models reproduce observed continental-scale surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades, including the more rapid warming since the mid-20th century and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions (very high confidence).

Observational and model studies of temperature change, climate feedbacks and changes in the Earth’s energy budget together provide confidence in the magnitude of global warming in response to past and future forcing.

Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes. This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.

Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.

Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. It is likely to exceed 2°C for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, and more likely than not to exceed 2°C for RCP4.5. Warming will continue beyond 2100 under all RCP scenarios except RCP2.6. Warming will continue to exhibit interannual-to-decadal variability and will not be regionally uniform.

Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over the 21st century will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, although there may be regional exceptions.

The global ocean will continue to warm during the 21st century. Heat will penetrate from the surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation.

It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin and that Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover will decrease during the 21st century as global mean surface temperature rises. Global glacier volume will further decrease.

Preliminary Arctic sea ice projections from the IPCC AR5 WGI summary for policymakers

Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century. Under all RCP scenarios the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971–2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.

Preliminary sea level rise projections from the IPCC AR5 WGI summary for policymakers

Climate change will affect carbon cycle processes in a way that will exacerbate the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere (high confidence). Further uptake of carbon by the ocean will increase ocean acidification.

Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond. Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by past, present and future emissions of CO2.

Having read the IPCC's latest  projections we repeat the question we have asked numerous times here on econnexus.org.uk over the last 5 years:

When will the world's policymakers stop spouting hot air and start taking practical measures to mitigate the inevitable climate change that we all must now face.

Here's an hour long video of the opening session of the IPCC AR5 WGI meeting in Stockholm:

Judge for yourself whether it's mostly scientific facts or merely more hot air.

Nordic Bulk Carriers A/S have just announced in a press release that:

The international shipping industry is these days witness to a historic event, when a vessel for the first time ever is sailing from Vancouver in Canada to Finland through Arctic waters. One of the world’s few modern ice-class bulk carriers – MV NORDIC ORION – will carry a cargo of 73,500 tons of coal via the so called North West Passage through Arctic waters to Finland. A Danish pioneer in operating ice-classed bulk carriers Nordic Bulk Carriers A/S is behind the historic North West Journey

Despite all the recent erroneous publicity about "ice bound" yachts in the Northwest Passage and "60% more ice",  Christian Bonfils who is managing director of Nordic Bulk Carriers goes on to say that:

We are very excited about this historic voyage, which has been a dream and ambition for several years. We have deep respect towards these important Arctic waters and have planned this voyage in close coordination with Transport Canada and the Canadian Coast Guard to ensure a safe execution. Reducing time, fuel and CO2 emissions The North West Passage across the Arctic is shorter than the traditional route through the Panama Canal and thereby has the potential to generate important saving in both time, fuel and CO2 emissions. The North West Passage shortens the distance with 1.000 nautical miles. This results in a reduction in fuel consumption and transportation time – and it also means lower CO2 emissions. The fuel savings alone add up to approximately USD 80,000. In addition this new route allows full utilisation of the ships capacity and thereby carries 25% more cargo than through the Panama Canal.

The ship is somewhat more sturdy than most of the vessels that have traversed the southern route of the Northwest passage this summer. According to NBC once again, in  a related factsheet:

MV Nordic Orion is an ice-class 1A ship. This is the highest conventional ice-class, and it is one of the only ships that can sail the route due to ice filled waters.

Describing the Nordic Orion in detail, they go on to cover the following bullet points:

75.603 Dead weight tons

Built in 2011 at Oshima Shipyard in Japan

Ice class 1A

225 meter long

18,420 brake horse power (normal non ice classed ships have 12,000 bhp)

Carries 73,500 tons of coal

Has a sister ship MV Nordic Odyssey, which also has performed several Arctic trips and was the first Panamax bulk carrier on the Northern Sea Route

Here's a video of one of Nordic Bulk Carriers' ice class 1A vessels in action on the Northern Sea Route:

When NBC say world wide, they mean World Wide! Here's a photo of the Nordic Orion on a visit to South West England earlier this year!

With both the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route now open for business and carrying commercial traffic, I wonder when the first weather induced "incident" will occur? There aren't many "ports in a storm" on either route!

As we reported at the end of last month, the South Brent Community Energy Society's "remanufactured" Vestas V27 wind turbine has now been delivered and installed. Here's a time lapse video revealing the steps involved in installing a wind turbine:

Installation of the SBCES Wind Turbine from Jim L. Hunt on Vimeo.

Last weekend I went on a visit to the site shortly before the SBCES annual general meeting was held in South Brent village hall. Here are a few snaps I took, plus one taken by a man with a camera at the top of the turbine's mast, which shows an aerial view of the adjacent Marley Thatch solar PV farm!

A view of the Marley Thatch solar PV farm from the top of the SBCES wind turbine

Following the installation of the turbine it seems there were a few teething troubles that still needed sorting out. However by September 14th those had been solved, all the right paperwork had been sent off to OFGEM, the wind turbine was feeding electricity into the grid and the South Brent Community Energy Society were finally expecting to receive some income after many years of hard work and the expenditure of considerable sums of money. The Society tell me that the turbine installation has cost £383,500 so far, and the grid connection an additional £17,000. They're now waiting for formal accreditation from OFGEM, and some money should then start flowing into their bank account, rather than out, in the very near future.

A view of the SBCES wind turbine and grid connection from the road

A view inside the nacelle of the SBCES wind turbine

A view of the SBCES wind turbine from the road at Blue Post

According to a MeyGen news release this morning:

MeyGen Ltd. has been awarded consent by the Scottish Government for an 86MW tidal energy project, following the completion of the statutory approval process with the regulator Marine Scotland.

The project is located in the Inner Sound of the Pentland Firth off the north coast of Caithness, home to one of Europe’s greatest tidal resources. It is the largest tidal stream energy project to be awarded consent in Europe and constitutes the first phase of a site that could eventually yield up to 398MW.

MeyGen plans to build an initial demonstration array of up to 6 turbines, with construction starting in early 2014 and turbines commissioned in 2015. This initial array will provide valuable environmental data for the subsequent phases and the wider tidal energy industry.

Here's what one of the AR1000 turbines that will be used for the project looks like:

Atlantis Resources AR1000 tidal turbine (Image Atlantis)

According to the BBC:

[The project] will begin with a 9MW demonstration project of up to six turbines, with construction expected to take place on a phased basis until 2020. When fully operational, the 86MW array could generate enough electricity to power the equivalent of 42,000 homes. That is the equivalent of 40% of homes in the Highlands, the Scottish government said. It will be the first commercial deployment of tidal turbines in Scottish waters.

Scottish-registered company MeyGen is a joint venture between investment bank Morgan Stanley, independent power generator International Power and tidal technology provider Atlantis Resources Corporation. Its tidal energy project is located in the Inner Sound of the Pentland Firth off the north coast of Caithness. The firm has agreed a 25-year lease with the Crown Estate for an area encompassing about 1.4 square miles (3.5 square kilometres) of fast flowing water between the island of Stroma and the north easterly tip of the Scottish mainland.

Here's what an AR1000 drive train looks like in action whilst being tested at the UK's National Renewable Energy Centre (NaREC) :

According to the 10th public advisory bulletin concerning Ingrid, issued by the National Hurricane Center at 21:00 UTC yesterday evening:

INGRID BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2013 SEASON.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED [BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO] FROM CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES…AND FROM SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN.

As you can tell from that report, Ingrid has actually formed in the Gulf of Mexico close to the Mexican coast. According to the latest bulletin #12a:

INGRID CONTINUES A SLOW APPROACH TOWARD THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO, AND HAS NOT STRENGTHENED FURTHER. ON THE FORECAST TRACK INGRID SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE CENTER, AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM). THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB (29.12 INCHES).

INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY, WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA EARLY MONDAY.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

Here is Ingrid's current 5 day forecast track:

NHC forecast track for Hurricane Ingrid at 07:00 CDT on Sunday September 15th, 2013