January 15, 2016
Hurricane Alex Heads for Greenland
As we previously reported the extraordinary North Atlantic cyclone called Alex became a hurricane yesterday. This morning (UTC) we wake to discover that in their most recent update on his progress the National Hurricane Center are predicting that even though Alex has now weakened slightly he will carry his hurricane force winds all the way to Greenland:
According to their interim bulletin 6A:
CONDITIONS [ARE] DETERIORATING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES…
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES LATER
THIS MORNING…SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST…0600 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…35.5N 27.3W
ABOUT 220 MI…355 KM S OF TERCEIRA ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
ABOUT 230 MI…365 KM SSE OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…984 MB…29.06 INCHES
The more detailed discussion from 3 hours earlier points out that:
The cyclone should begin extratropical transition in the next few hours, and the global models suggest there will be enough baroclinic forcing to maintain hurricane-force winds through and after the transition despite the cold water.
Based on this and input from the Ocean Prediction Center, the new intensity forecast shows little change in strength until Alex is absorbed by a large extratropical low in about 72 hours.
Filed under Climate by
Comments on Hurricane Alex Heads for Greenland »
NHC public advisory 7 for Alex states that:
Alex is now forecast to make a sudden turn to the west off Southern Greenland:
The NHC's most recent detailed discussion puts it this way:
Here's the United States' Ocean Prediction Center's current 48 hour forecast:
The NHC's interim public advisory bulletin 7A states that:
Here's what the SpotAzores surfcam at Angra do Heroismo reveals at the moment:
and here is Magic Seaweed's current surf forecast for the vicinity:
Alex's winds have dropped to 70 mph, and he has now been downgraded to a tropical storm. According to the NHC's public advisory bulletin 8:
Alex's wind speeds are forecast to increase once again, as you can see from the latest forecast track:
It's difficult keeping up, you have been so busy since you returned.
Reggie on the otherhand has taken a hiatus from twitter and won't return until March 19
There's a lot to keep up with Reggie! Alex is more than a touch unusual so the forecasters don't have a lot of precedents to follow, or so it seems to me at least.
Here's a picture of Alex after he passed over the central Azores earlier today, courtesy of NASA's Suomi satellite:
The United States' National Hurricane Center has just issued it's last advisory bulletin concerning what they now refer to as post-tropical cyclone Alex:
The NHC's last forecast track for post-tropical cyclone Alex looks like this:
Where should we now turn for more information on Alex's seemingly inexorable progress towards Greenland?
More on that tomorrow!
In this morning's update on ex Hurricane Alex we head over to the United States' National Weather Service Ocean Prediction Center where we can read the following:
You will note that "30 ft seas" are forecast and that the forecasters signature includes the words "NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER".
Personally I think a picture is worth a thousand words, so here is the OPC's current synoptic chart for the North Atlantic:
which shows Alex with a minimum central pressure of 980 hPa and mentions "Developing hurricane force winds". Here also is the forecast for 48 hours from now, which shows Alex as having been "absorbed" into a 972 hPa minimum central pressure system south of Greenland which will be sending some welcome swell across the North Atlantic in the general direction of us over here in Soggy South West England:
Finally, for the moment at least, here's some videos of not quite a Hurricane Alex's arrival in the Azores:
By way of a change, here's a perhaps more visually appealing surface pressure chart than the OPC ones, courtesy of the United Kingdom's Met(eoroloigical) Office, which as luck would have it is just down the road from us in Exeter. This one's from 12:00 UTC today:
It shows Alex as a 975 hPa low still heading inexorably towards the almost stationary 962 hPa low spinning between Newfoundland and Greenland.
Some long distance swell from Alex is currently due to arrive here on the north coast of South West England some time tomorrow:
The wind is forecast to be offshore too, so a trip to the seaside may well be the order of the day tomorrow afternoon!
Great work
The last few months have been entertaining and since the beginning of this 16 day old year is absolute proof of #global_weirding.
Bernie Sanders is making climate change a major issue and Clinton will have to take a clear position. Meanwhile Sanders is now leading with under 45 year olds. The GOP is melting down and their pseuo-science may come back to bitr them in the a$$.
Reggie isn't real, he is a crude _ALGOREithm that isb a long way from passing the Turing Test but will easily defy explanation unless you have seen the 15 year old flow chart that lead to #reggie
Steve Goddard and his malicous minions are trolling Youtube and believe it or not, they are mocking Vallevy and his crew. The keyboard warriors are mocking men who have accomplished incredible feats. Maybe #tony_the_lessor is insecure about his manhood so he is compensating.
I was banned from real stupid science when I asked tony to delete the nasty comments towards Clease and Midler. What gets heller's panties in a wad is the fact that nobody of any consequence pays him the least attention.
Careful what you wish for because dreams often come true.
Goddard is about to get attention but not exactly the kind he desires.
This morning's update from the NWS Ocean Prediction Center reads as follows:
There will now be a brief hiatus in our coverage of ex Hurricane Alex, because we're heading for the coast shortly. We confidently expect a gentle offshore breeze and seas more like 3 ft than 33ft!
Here's the 00:00 UTC surface pressure chart for the North Atlantic from the NWS Ocean Prediction Center:
It shows Alex as now having been absorbed into the low pressure system south of Greenland. Note also another system with central pressure of 976 hPa currently located south of Newfoundland.
This morning's update from the OPC still mentions those "hurricane force winds" though:
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml
They then go on to mention that other low:
which we will be following in greater detail in due course.