As the G20 leaders start their deliberations in Cannes today some more famous names have been putting their weight behind the campaign to introduce some kind of financial transaction tax.  On Tuesday the Anglican Archbishop of Canterbury, Rowan Williams,  joined Pope Benedict XVI in calling for the introduction of what he referred to in an article in the Financial Times as

A Financial Transaction Tax – a “Tobin Tax” or, popularly, a “Robin Hood Tax”

but points out that the UK government currently does not favour such a tax. Then yesterday the United Nations Development Programme published its Human Development Report 2011, in which it said that:

The funding gap in resources available to address the deprivations and challenges documented in this Report could be substantially narrowed by taking advantage of new opportunities. The prime candidate is a currency transaction tax. The UN High-Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Financing recently proposed that 25–50 percent of the proceeds from such a tax be directed to climate change adaptation and mitigation in developing countries.

The UN goes on to propose a broader financial transaction tax:

Most G-20 countries have already implemented a financial transaction tax, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has confirmed the administrative feasibility of a broader tax. One version of the tax, a levy of 0.05 percent on domestic and international financial transactions, could raise an estimated $600–$700 billion.

Moving on from finance to energy, the UN also calls for:

A high-profile, global Universal Energy Access Initiative with advocacy and awareness and dedicated support to developing clean energy at the country level. Such an initiative could kickstart efforts to shift from incremental to transformative change.

Major energy inequalities persist across regions, countries, gender and classes. Acknowledging that energy distribution cannot be considered apart from political and social exclusion, the 65th United Nations General Assembly proclaimed 2012 as the International Year of Sustainable Energy for All.

and goes on to point out that:

We are gambling with our planet through “games” in which private individuals reap the benefits while society bears the costs. A system that allows such outcomes is doomed to mismanage risk. As Nobel Prize–winning economist Joseph Stiglitz recently noted, “the bankers that put our economy at risk and the owners of energy companies that put our planet at risk may walk off with a mint. But on average and almost certainly, we as a society, like gamblers, will lose.”

Perverse incentives provide investment banks and energy companies with hidden subsidies, like low liability caps, the prospect of bailouts, and the knowledge that taxpayers will shoulder the costs.

On top of UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon's call earlier this week for the G20 leaders to listen to the voices of:

Young people and women [who] have taken to the streets throughout the world, demanding their rights and a greater voice in the economic and political life of their countries.

there is now a very loud chorus calling for the World's political leaders to start listening to their electorate and to stop gambling with our money.

Do you suppose there is any chance that pigs might fly over Cannes before the week is out?

As we reported last week, the leaders of the G20 nations (plus a few others) are on a jaunt to the Mediterranean seaside in Cannes this week. Amongst other things they are scheduled to discuss the global financial crisis. As luck would have it another item will have added itself to their agenda this morning. According to Yahoo!

MF Global's meltdown in less than a week made it the biggest U.S. casualty of Europe's debt crisis, and the seventh-largest bankruptcy by assets in U.S. history.

The chief executive of MF Global Holdings Ltd. is Jon Corzine. According to The Economist recently, Mr. Corzine is:

Another former head of Goldman Sachs [potentially] running America’s Treasury, Mr Corzine (who is also a former governor of New Jersey) is seen as a long-shot candidate for the job when Tim Geithner steps down, or as a possible future White House economic adviser.

The Economist discusses what it refers to as "The Corzine put". This cunningly constructed derivative means that MF Global:

Is offering an extra percentage point of interest to investors in its latest bond issue, should Jon Corzine, MF’s chief executive, quit to take a government job before July 2013.

I wonder what those bond holders make of that extra percentage point this morning? In the current circumstances it seems unlikely Mr. Corzine will ever in fact have a government job, although I suppose stranger things have happened. According to Politico, not so very long ago:

Putting his own political capital on the line, President Barack Obama headlined a pair of get-out-the-vote rallies for New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine

Maybe Mr. Obama will put his own political capital on the line for Mr. Corzine again one day, when memories have faded a little? Or there again perhaps not. According to The Economist once more:

It is unlikely that Mr Corzine will stage another comeback. On October 31st MF Global filed for bankruptcy after frantic efforts to sell assets or find a buyer failed. The cause of the firm’s demise were trades and strategies driven by Mr Corzine—not least disastrous bets in the market for European sovereign debt, making MF Global the largest American casualty of the euro-zone crisis so far.

The US regulators supposedly charged with keeping a close eye on these matters have just issued a statement on the MF Global debacle. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission:

For several days, the SEC, CFTC and other regulators had been closely monitoring developments affecting MF Global, Inc., a jointly registered futures commission merchant and broker-dealer, in anticipation of a transaction that would include the transfer of customer accounts to another firm. Early this morning, MF Global informed the regulators that the transaction had not been agreed to and reported possible deficiencies in customer futures segregated accounts held at the firm. The SEC and CFTC have determined that a SIPC-led bankruptcy proceeding would be the safest and most prudent course of action to protect customer accounts and assets. SIPC announced today that it is initiating the liquidation of MF Global under the Securities Investor Protection Act (SIPA).

It sounds awfully like it's not only MF Global bond holders who will be forced to undergo a haircut. It sounds like there are some deficiencies in the supposedly segregated accounts of MF Global's customers too.  According to the New York Times:

Regulators are examining whether MF Global diverted some customer funds to support its own trades as the firm teetered on the brink of collapse. It is still unclear where the money went. At first, as much as $950 million was believed to be missing, but as the firm sorted through its bankruptcy, that figure fell to less than $700 million by late Monday, the people briefed on the matter said.

For a more detailed breakdown of the billions of dollars potentially involved in the latest Wall Street crash let's turn for assistance to Michael Bloomberg, who is an expert in such matters. According to Bloomberg Businessweek:

MF Global Holdings Ltd., the holding company for the broker-dealer run by ex-Goldman Sachs Group Inc. co-chairman Jon Corzine, filed for bankruptcy protection as it seeks to reorganize after making bets on European sovereign debt. Its broker-dealer unit, MF Global Inc., faces liquidation. The firm listed debt of $39.7 billion and assets of $41 billion in Chapter 11 papers filed yesterday in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan.

I went on a jaunt of my own to the seaside last weekend,  although in my case it was to a rather wild and windy Croyde in North Devon, here in South West England. As luck would have it I bumped into a few old friends, and we thought now would be a very good time to send a virtual postcard from us here in South West England to those currently congregating in Cannes. Here it is:

I assume that thanks to the tireless work of their security services the G20 leaders will recognise a Universe Inspector when they see one. Just in case they don't, here's a quick snapshot of one we managed to grab recently:

The Shepherds of Seven are watching the G20 closely

As Bucky and Ban Ki-moon might have put it. Universe is watching closely.

Earlier today I drove Kasia from Exeter to Bristol Airport, to catch the Ryanair flight to Poznan. She's going back to Poland for a few weeks to see her family, and part of mine!  We left in plenty of time, just in case our previous experience of long delays on the M5 motorway was repeated. As we left I grabbed my green rucksack, still full of Contemporary Art in the Community kit from our last trip. As luck would have it, whilst there was lots of rain to contend with, there were no significant delays.  Just for a change the EasyJet queue to check-in hold luggage at Bristol was almost non-existent, but the Ryanair queue was perhaps ten minutes:

Jim in the Ryanair queue at Bristol Airport on October 27th 2011

Once Kasia was safely checked in we glanced at the big board, and her flight looked like it was going to leave on time:

Tenerife looks more inviting than Poznan at Bristol Airport on October 27th 2011

Even so we still had plenty of time to grab a coffee, and we figured if anyone else in the cafe had plenty of time to spare we'd ask them if they wouldn't mind us videoing a brief conversation about contemporary art.  Kasia turned our Handycam on me as I ordered a couple of cappucinos:

Caffeine is coming at Bristol Airport on October 27th 2011

When I returned to our table I was surprised by the sudden absence of said video camera. Kasia told me a nice lady had politely asked her to stop using it, so she'd turned it off and put it back in my rucksack. In view of this, and unusually for us, we drank our coffees without chatting to anyone on the adjacent tables:

Kasia needed that! At Bristol Airport on October 27th 2011

Once Kasia had gone to get her handbag scanned and then board that plane, I headed back downstairs to try and find someone who could explain Bristol Airport's apparent "no video" policy to me.  The following conversation ensued with two nice gentlemen I discovered behind the Bristol Airport Information Desk. I thought it prudent in all the circumstances not to record the conversation, so this is based on my (admittedly ageing!) memory about 4 hours after the events in question.

Jim – I've just been seeing my partner off on the flight to Poznan. She was videoing me buying two coffees just now, but while I was doing that she was asked to stop. I was wondering why that was?
G1 – It's for security reasons.
Jim – So nobody's allowed to film videos in here?
G1 – No. It could be terrorists "casing the joint". We don't object to people taking two or three still pictures when they're greeting or saying goodbye to their familes for example, but videos are definitely out.
Jim – Can I explain to you what we were intending to do?
G1 – OK.
Jim – We wanted to talk to someone waiting for a plane about contemporary art, and record the conversation for use on one of our websites. From what you've said that's not going to be possible inside the terminal?
G1 – No.
Jim – How about outside the building, or maybe in one of the car parks?
G1 – It's all private property. Once you're out onto the A38 it would be OK, but not anywhere on Airport property.
Jim – But there's not many people to interview on the side of the A38!
G2 – There's lots of cameras both inside and outside the terminal. You'd be spotted quickly, and asked to stop again.
Jim – OK. Would it be alright if I ran some of our questions past you guys. Obviously I won't record it!
G! – (Looking doubtful) OK then.

Jim – Thanks. It looks like you've got a computer of your own over there in the corner. Can you browse the web on it?
G1 – I think I could, yes.
Jim – OK, First can I ask what if anything the name Benedict means to you?
G1 – Nothing in particular
G2 – The liqueur. Benedictine?

Jim – OK, thanks. Have you heard of Robin Hood though?
G1 – Yes!
G2 – Sherwood Forest!
Jim – And what was he famous for?
G2 – Robbing the rich to give to the poor?
Jim – Exactly! Have you heard about the Robin Hood Tax?
Both – Shake heads

Jim – How about "Love Actually", the movie?
Both – Yes.
Jim – Have you seen the film?
G1 – It sounds like a "girly" sort of thing to me, so no.
G2 – Shakes head.
Jim – Have you heard of Richard Curtis?
G1 – Yes
Jim – He was the producer, no the director. How about Bill Nighy?
Both – Yes

Jim – He was one of the stars. Lets go back to Benedict for a moment. Have you heard of Pope Benedict?
Both – Yes!
Jim – How about the G20?
Both – Yes!
Jim – Did you know the G20 leaders are having a little get together in Cannes in the South of France next week?
Both – No.
Jim – So I guess you don't know that Pope Benedict and Richard Curtis and Bill Nighy and lots of other people around the world are suggesting that the G20 leaders introduce something called the Robin Hood Tax at that meeting next week?
Both – No.

Jim – (Shows them his Android)
It's not recording anything! Take a look.  Here's a web search I just did for "Pope Benedict Robin Hood Tax"
RobinHoodTax.org is first, and my website is second.
(clicks second link, then clicks on the video)
That's a short video by the Love Actually team about the Robin Hood Tax.
Would you be at all interested in watching it? It's only 3 minutes or so.
G1 – No, not really.
Jim – Why's that?
G1 – I've never met you before. I don't know what you want.
Jim – You could check out my website on your own computer there. Wouldn't that help?
G1 – Nope.
Jim – OK. I wouldn't say that it's likely, but would it interest you to learn that there might possibly be "a bit of a revolution" somewhere next week about all this?
G1 – Nope.
Jim – (shakes the hand of G1) OK – Thanks very much for taking the time to talk to me. Remember that if something like that does happen, you heard it here first!

The next summit meeting of the leaders of the G20 nations takes place next week in Cannes, and the global financial crisis is top of the agenda. A variety of people from around the world are pressuring the G20 leaders to introduce a "tax on bankers". Such a tax has been discussed over the years under a variety of aliases, including "Tobin Tax" and "Financial Transaction Tax". However here in the UK currently the most popular euphemism for the idea is "Robin Hood Tax". Here's a video in which the team of Richard Curtis and Bill Nighy (of Love Actually fame) present their interpretation of the concept:

Richard and Bill aren't the only supporters of such a tax by any means. Nicolas Sarkozy is keen on the idea too. A couple of months ago the Daily Telegraph reported Mr Sarkozy as saying that:

The French and German ministers will table a joint proposal at EU level next September for a tax on financial transactions. This is a priority for us.

Nicolas even went so far as to ask Bill Gates to investigate the Robin Hood tax further for him. Having done so Bill says he likes the idea as well. According to Reuters:

In a report presented to a meeting of G20 ministers in Washington, the billionaire philanthropist proposed taxing financial transactions, tobacco, and shipping and aviation fuels.

Now this week the Vatican has also expressed the view that taxing the rich in order to give to the poor is an idea whose time has come:

The good thing about crises is that they are moments of great opportunity. The global financial crisis is an opportunity to reform the architecture of the global financial system, and strengthen the European Union in terms of harmonization of fiscal policies.

The only fly in the ointment is that at the last count Barack Obama and David Cameron didn't seem to be nearly so keen on the concept as Pope Benedict XVI and messrs Sarkozy and Gates. Neither is the Swedish finance minister Anders Borg. According to the BBC, when Sweden introduced a financial transaction tax in the 1980s things didn't go well. Mr. Borg told them that:

Between 90%-99% of traders in bonds, equities and derivatives moved out of Stockholm to London. We are basically taxing growth away from Europe, and that is not a very good idea. The impact was basically that we did not get any tax revenue. It brought in very little tax money while moving most of the businesses outside of Sweden. We abandoned [the tax] because it was a very, very bad functioning tax.

If such a tax were introduced across Europe, perhaps Mr. Borg's prediction for the BBC would come true?

The fact that the US has said it has no intention of introducing a similar tax, means that firms would be free to move to other financial centres.

No doubt that is why, again according to the BBC, that:

The UK has been vocal in its opposition to the tax proposed by the European Commission earlier this week. A spokesperson for the UK Treasury said it would "absolutely resist" any tax that was not introduced globally.

All in all in sounds as though the G20 leaders should pencil into their diaries plenty of time to debate this evidently contentious issue next week in the South of France. I wonder how much taxpayers money it takes to fund a years worth of events such as this? How much would be left out of £50 billion after covering that bill, always assuming Anders' predictions are overly gloomy?

One way or another it's been an eventful week for protesters around the world, loosely gathered together under the "Occupy Wall Street" banner.

Amongst the usual suspects, last Friday Michael Moore spoke to Lawrence O'Donnell in an interview broadcast on MSNBC:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Amongst other things Michael said that:

We are not going anywhere. We are there until we have justice, and for people who say "What does that mean? What does everybody want?" what we want is a fundamental change. This is no longer about trying to get some bill passed, let's elect this Congressman or whatever. We've been down that road, and everyone's depressed by the way the political system is run, so until we get the money out of that system we're going to have to depend on really grassroots people demanding this change and making this change occur. and that's what's going to happen.

On Saturday Dr. Ben Mack, protege of Buckminster Fuller and a Facebook Friend of mine, marched in protest on the streets of Phoenix Arizona. Ben got gassed for his trouble. Amongst other things Ben said that:

I'm having trouble sleeping, I got tear-gassed earlier tonight, and I was 150 feet away, and it sucked. These protesters are braver people than me. Why don't they come with gas masks?

On Monday a leader in the Financial Times newspaper said, amongst other things, that:

The fundamental call for a fairer distribution of wealth cannot be ignored. What is at stake is the future of the American dream.

On Tuesday Michael Moore was invited to talk to Jeremy Paxman in an interview broadcast on BBC Television here in the UK. Amongst other things that Michael said this time around were:

There are new "Occupy" movements beginning in towns and cities every day, and now it's spread across the World. It's really touched a nerve. It may seem weird because you have a lot of young people there in the park. It's only "weird" in the sense that all movements for justice begin with people who are willing to be out there "on the edge" a bit.

Today the cover story in The Economist magazine puts it this way:

European social democracy promised voters benefits that societies can no longer afford. The Anglo-Saxon model claimed that free markets would create prosperity; many voters feel instead that they got a series of debt-fuelled asset bubbles and an economy that was rigged in favour of a financial elite, who took all the proceeds in the good times and then left everybody else with no alternative other than to bail them out. To use one of the protesters’ better slogans, the 1% have gained at the expense of the 99%.

The Economist's message to the "politicians [who] are already in something of a funk" may not find much favour amongst those occupying Wall Street, and other streets worldwide, but here it is nonetheless:

Braver politicians would focus on two things.

The first is tackling the causes of the rage speedily.Make sure the rich pay their share, but in a way that makes economic sense: you can boost the tax take from the wealthy by eliminating loopholes while simultaneously lowering marginal rates. Reform finance vigorously. “Move to Basel 3 and higher capital requirements” is not a catchy slogan, but it would do far more to shrink bonuses on Wall Street than most of the ideas echoing across from Zuccotti Park.

The second is telling the truth—especially about what went wrong. It is worth remembering that the epicentre of the 2008 disaster was American property, hardly a free market undistorted by government. For all the financiers’ faults (“too big to fail”, the excessive use of derivatives and the rest of it), the huge hole in most governments’ finances stems less from bank bail-outs than from politicians spending too much in the boom and making promises to do with pensions and health care they never could keep.

Do you suppose any common ground will be found amongst those seeking to replace capitalism with something better, such as Jacque Fresco, and those who believe that reforming capitalism is a more realistic objective, such as Bill Gates?

Will "Occupy Wall Street" one day become "Wall Street is Redundant"?

Unfortunately the weekend's forecast for the future of Hurricane Jova seems to be have been quite accurate. According to Reuters this morning:

Jova will make landfall on Tuesday afternoon or evening to the northwest of Manzanillo near the resort towns of Melaque and Barra de Navidad, on a stretch of coast dotted with beaches south of Puerto Vallarta.

"We expect it to be really strong," said Irma Joya, owner of a souvenir shop on the main boardwalk in Puerto Vallarta, a popular tourist destination where residents braced for waves up to 13 feet high. "We have experience with hurricanes so there is a culture of prevention here," she said as she boarded up her shop with wooden planks on Monday evening.

Authorities planned to evacuate low-lying areas.

Manzanillo, Mexico's main point of arrival for cargo containers, has been closed since late Sunday and about 13 container ships are stuck in the port.

An official said shipments that were held up because of the lock-down, included 15,000 tonnes of sugar from Colombia, 16,000 tonnes of imported rolled steel and a shipment of iron pellets for domestic use.

According to the latest forecast from the MagicSeaweed surf forecasting website the waves later today will be even bigger than Irma is anticipating:

MagicSeaweed surf forecast for Pascuales, Mexico on Tuesday October 11th 2011

and here is MSW's forecast for the winds later today:

MagicSeaweed wind forecast for the Pacific coast of Mexico at 12:00 UTC on Tuesday October 11th 2011

In their most recent public advisory bulletin the National Hurricane Center put the prognosis this way:

JOVA TAKING AIM ON SOUTHWEST MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
* NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO EL ROBLITO MEXICO

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND – TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

STORM SURGE – A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL – JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACAN, COLIMA, JALISCO AND NAYARIT, WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF – SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

If you would like to watch events unfold later today on the Pacific coast of Mexico from a safe distance, here is a live view (currently at least) of the beach at Puerto Vallarta. If that is a luxury you and your family cannot afford, please take very great care over the next 24 hours.

In a break from activity in the North Atlantic, hurricane watchers like us here at econnexus.org.uk are now suddenly turning their attention to the Eastern Pacific.  At 21:00 UTC last night the National Hurricane Center announced that:

JOVA BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT DRIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOVA. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND – NONE.

There may be no hazards affecting land just yet, but take a look at the NHC's latest 5 day forecast:

NHC 5 day forecast track for Hurricane Jova at 09:00 UTC on Sunday October 9th

Jova is currently predicted by the NHC to come ashore in South West Mexico at around 11 PM on Tuesday night as a major hurricane.  This is what Western Mexico looked like the last time a similar thing happened:

In 2008 Hurricane Norbert had reduced to a category 2 hurricane by the time it hit the West coast of Mexico. Nonetheless according to Wikipedia:

About 100,000 people were without power at the height of the storm [in Baja California Sur]

25 people were killed [in Sonora]

The fishing industry in Sinaloa sustained severe losses, with 200 shrimp boats being destroyed leaving MXN 8 million (2008, $600,000 USD ) in damages. Roughly 6,000 people were left homeless.

On October 14, Governor Eduardo Bours Castelo of Sonora announced a two year reconstruction plan for Álamos with an initial budget of MXN 100 million ($7.3 million). The municipalities of Ahome,El Fuerte, Choix, Guasave and the city of Sinaloa de Leyva were declared disaster areas following the storm, allowing federal funding and supplies to be sent to the regions. The government in Sonora provided at least MXN 400 million ($29.5 million) in relief funds following the hurricane. Most of northern Sinaloa was also declared a disaster area.

Here is Tina Barnard's guide on how to survive a hurricane one more time, just in case the current forecasts are even approximately correct.

We're a bit behind on our reporting of the progress of Hurricane Ophelia, because we've been frantically busy here in South West England launching our latest project, which is entitled "Contemporary Art in the Community". More on all that soon, but for now we must firstly apologise to Bermudan resident Tina Barnard who gave us and our other readers some extremely sound advice on how to survive if a hurricane should ever head in the direction of you and your loved ones.

If you're reading this Tina, sorry for not shouting your message more loudly over the last few days, and we sincerely hope that you and your loved ones are safe and well this morning.

A week ago the National Hurricane Centre was reporting that:

OPHELIA DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND – NONE

NEXT ADVISORY – THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON OPHELIA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

We figured that was that, but as so often happens with hurricane forecasts, we were wrong. The next NHC public advisory bulletin concerning Ophelia was issued at 21:00 UTC on Tuesday September 27th and informed anyone who was reading that:

OPHELIA REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND – OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

If you take a look at the NHC graphical archive for Hurricane Ophelia you will be able to see what happened thereafter:

The NHC 5 day forecast for Hurricane Ophelia at 21:00 UTC on Thursday September 29th 2011

By 21:00 on September 29th the NHC was telling us that:

OPHELIA BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

and Bermuda was right on the edge of Ophelia's "potential track" for yesterday evening. As luck would have it Ophelia actually veered slightly to the east of the forecast track after that, rather than slightly to the west. Although Ophelia eventually became a category 4 hurricane,  yesterday Bermuda News was able to report that:

Hurricane Ophelia, the fourth hurricane of the 2011 season, is expected to pass 120 nautical miles to the east of Bermuda at approximately 7pm this evening.

Update 1.33pm: In their 12 noon update, the BWS said Ophelia’s closest point of approach to Bermuda will now be 115 nm at 8pm this evening.

Update 3.31pm: The Department of Parks’ Lifeguard Service have erected red, high surf warning signs along the south shore including National Park- South Shore Park and closed Horsehoe Beach.

Given the current weather forecast, the Lifeguard Service expects to resume normal operating hours on Sunday, October 2, [10am-6pm] in addition to removing the high surf warning signs.

Update 7.40pm: At 7.30pm the Bermuda Weather Service cancelled the Tropical Storm Watch

and post a video showing that the surf on Bermuda's south shore was in fact no worse than this:

At the end of the day a very close run thing for Tina and the other inhabitants of Bermuda. The forecast currently shows that Ophelia may eventually provide some large surfable swells here in South West England, so rest assured we will be watching Ophelia rather more closely over the next few days than we were last week.

Michael Hart is dead. Long live Project Gutenberg.

Michael was the founder of Project Gutenberg, and typed the first ever "e-book" into a computer via a Teletype machine way back on July 4th 1971. That "book" was the Declaration of Independence of the United States from Great Britain. and Michael died on September 6th 2011, aged 64. According to his obituary in the Economist:

The joy of e-books, which he invented, was that anyone could read those books anywhere, free, on any device, and every text could be replicated millions of times over. He dreamed that by 2021 he would have provided a million e-books each, a petabyte of information that could probably be held in one hand, to a billion people all over the globe—a quadrillion books, just given away. As powerful as the Bomb, but beneficial.

According to The Economist once more, his dream of the potential effects of his cyber-revolution can be summed up as follows:

Books prices plummet.

Literacy rates soar.

Education rates soar.

Old structures crumble, as did the Church.

Scientific Revolution.

Industrial Revolution.

Humanitarian Revolution.

However that's not quite how Michael's dream has panned out, by the time of his death at least:

Because of the Mickey Mouse copyright laws, every time men found a speedier way to spread information to each other, government made it illegal. Money-oriented rivals such as Google and Yahoo! sprang up all round as the new century dawned, claiming to have invented e-books before him.

Maybe Michael's much anticipated humanitarian revolution is just around the corner? Maybe with more and more governments around the world espousing the ideals of "Open Data", copyright and patent laws will be repealed? Maybe money and lawyers will be made redundant? Maybe pigs might fly away, never to be needed again?

However things might turn out in the future, long live Project Gutenberg!

Michael Hart, R.I.P.

Michael Hart (left) and Greg Newby, founders of Project Gutenberg, in 2006

The September 7th overview of the North Atlantic from the National Hurricane Centre shows two red storms apart from Hurricane Katia:

North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity at 10:57 AM on Wednesday September 7th 2011

The newly named Tropical Storm Maria has just appeared, currently heading in the general direction of the Caribbean and the United States. According to the latest public advisory about Maria from the NHC:

YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM MARIA, THE 13TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2011 HURRICANE SEASON. AT 1500 UTC THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

In the Gulf of Mexico there is also a new "Area 1", about which the NHC has this to say:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE, 60 PERCENT, OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A bit further north in the Atlantic ocean Hurricane Katia is still there, and she has thankfully not caused any deaths so far. According to the latest public advisory about Katia from the NHC:

ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CORE OF KATIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, BERMUDA, THE GREATER ANTILLES AND EAST-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS, ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY.

KATIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

Just the sort of thing the world's best surfers are hoping for at Long Beach in fact.

However elsewhere on the planet recent tropical storms have not been so benevolent. In Japan the Mainichi Daily News reports that:

The death toll from Typhoon Talas that hit western Japan over the weekend rose to 48 in nine prefectures and the number of missing totaled 56 in 10 prefectures as of Tuesday night. The total number of dead or missing has risen to 104, meaning the final toll could surpass that from Typhoon Tokage, which left a total of 98 people dead or missing in October 2004.

In the Philippines the NDRRMC report today that following Typhoon Nanmadol:

The current total number of population affected is 95,540 families (403,193 people).

The cumulative number of population served inside 116 evacuation centers is 3,869 families / 17,716 persons and outside those centers is 51,614 families / 209,730 persons.

Casualties include 35 dead and 37 injured.

After battering the Philippines Typhoon Nanmadol moved on via Taiwan to China, where the People's Daily Online now reports that:

Bullet trains have been slowed or stopped as tropical storm Nanmadol continues to bring heavy rains and winds to east China's Fujian Province, local authorities said.

A mudslide triggered by heavy rains occurred at 6:25 a.m. Thursday near a section of railway connecting the city of Putian to Xianyou County. The affected section was repaired by 9 a.m., with speeds of passing bullet trains slowed to accommodate repairs, according to authorities from the Fuzhou Train Station.

As of 4:00 p.m. Thursday, Nanmadol's arrival has caused two deaths, left six missing, and forced the evacuations of 198,000 people in Fujian Province.

The storm has leveled more than 300 houses and damaged another 1,700 in Fujian with a direct economic loss of 130 million yuan (about 20 million U.S. dollars), according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs.

According to MSNBC the number of deaths attributed to Hurricane Irene in the United States has risen to:

At least 44

According to Wikipedia at least 8 deaths in the Caribbean can also be attributed to Irene, which for some reason MSNBC neglected to mention.