Since we first reported on Hurricane Sandy she slightly surprisingly left the north coast of Cuba as a category 2 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. According to Associated Press she then:
Raged through the Bahamas early Friday after leaving 38 people dead across the Caribbean
Here's their "raw video" of what happened in the Bahamas:
Last Wednesday the various models used by the forecasters weren't in agreement about what was likely to happen next week. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center suggested that Sandy would head harmlessly off across the North Atlantic, whereas the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model seemed convinced that Sandy was headed for the east coast of the United States:
I was recently asked if I could provide "any advice to object to [a] proposed solar farm". The solar farm in question is being proposed by Lightsource Renewable Energy on an 11.6 acre site at Higher Knapp Farm near Taunton. The Design and Access Statement provided as part of the planning application states that:
The purpose of the development is to convert daylight into electricity. This solar development will have a generation capacity of approximately 1.8 megawatts (MW), which is enough to power 531 typical homes, and save approximately 906,404 kg in CO² emissions per annum.
NHC forecast track for Hurricane Sandy at 11:00 EDT on Wednesday October 24, 2012
and as you can see, Sandy is due to reach Jamaica shortly then continue on through Cuba towards the Bahamas. As if all that weren't sufficient:
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY BEFORE SANDY MOVES OVER JAMAICA.
and
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAITI
It's been raining hard all day here in the Haldon Hills. If you're wondering why that's happening yet again please peruse my recent articles on how climate change causes Arctic sea-ice to disappear, which causes frequent floods here in South West England, which causes unpleasant bugs to go swimming around our beaches. Putting all that together at the present moment, here's how the information available online looks as we speak.
The Environment Agency has issued amber flood alerts for a number of rivers across Devon. These include parts of the rivers Clyst, Culm, Exe, Otter and Sid, as well as the river Neet at Bude in North Cornwall:
Environment Agency flood alerts for South West England at 19:40 BST on 9th October 2012
If we now drill down a bit further and click on the link to the Upper River Tamar we can see what's happening in and around Bude:
In the good old days I used to pore over atmospheric pressure charts kindly provided online by the likes of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF for short) before making a decision on exactly where and when to go surfing. Here's what they are revealing to me today:
ECMWF Surface Pressure Chart for October 7th 2012
At the moment there is a low pressure area out in the North Atlantic, which looks like it should be sending some swell in this direction. So far so good, and even better there's a high pressure area over Ireland. That means that on the north coast of South West England the waves should be onshore and the wind should be offshore at this very moment. At this juncture you may be wondering why I'm sat at my computer typing these words instead of packing my wetsuit into the car and rushing off to the coast. Please bear with me, whilst I endeavour to explain.
On July 9th Teignbridge District Council planning committee voted to refuse planning permission for the 40 acre Fulford Solar Park at Gold's Cross Hill near Tedburn St. Mary. In a not entirely unexpected turn of events the developer of that project, Inazin Solar, have now appealed against that decision. Not only that, but they have also simultaneously applied for planning permission for a remarkably similar new project, together with the requisite screening opinion. Consequently there are now three new entries on our interactive map and list of large scale solar PV projects in South West England, all at the same location!
According to Inazin's grounds for appeal against the decision on their original proposal:
The proposal, by reason of its scale, location, elevation and appearance will not have an unduly adverse impact on the character or visual amenities of the Area of Great Landscape Value (AGLV). Furthermore, the proposal will not be in conflict with policies of the Teignbridge Local Plan 1989-2001 and the Devon Structure Plan 2001-2016.
The provision of energy from renewable sources is encouraged by national and local policies and it can be demonstrated that the development, the subject of this appeal, will provide a valuable contribution towards meeting the targets of the District, which at present produces very little of its energy from renewable sources. It is considered therefore that the benefits resulting from the supply of renewable energy substantially outweigh any limited harm to the AGLV, in a District with a significant shortfall against national and local renewable energy targets.
The United States' National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC for short) has just issued a press release about the amount of ice in the Arctic at the moment. You may be wondering why on Earth that is relevant to you, but please bear with me as I endeavour to explain, with the help of a few videos. Here's the first one which shows summer 2012 in Sidmouth, a seaside town down here on the not so sunny south coast of Devon:
What do you suppose is the cause of the recent soggy summers and icy winters in South West England? According to the NSIDC:
Arctic sea ice cover likely melted to its minimum extent for the year on September 16. Sea ice extent fell to 3.41 million square kilometers (1.32 million square miles), now the lowest summer minimum extent in the satellite record.
Arctic sea ice cover grows each winter as the sun sets for several months, and shrinks each summer as the sun rises higher in the northern sky. Each year, the Arctic sea ice reaches its minimum extent in September. This year’s minimum follows a record-breaking summer of low sea ice extents in the Arctic. Sea ice extent fell to 4.10 million square kilometers (1.58 million square miles) on August 26, breaking the lowest extent on record set on September 18, 2007 of 4.17 million square kilometers (1.61 million square miles). On September 4, it fell below 4.00 million square kilometers (1.54 million square miles), another first in the 33-year satellite record.
The critical need for commercially viable, localised renewable energy technologies
The wind farm project has just taken another significant step on it's long road to:
Provid[ing] the electricity demand of around 2,500 homes per year
Following a long local consultation process, which included a coach trip to visit the first ever UK commercial wind farm at Delabole in Cornwall, South Hams District Council have now received a formal planning application from Infinergy for:
Two wind turbines (hub height 64m, tip height 99.5m) to generate 2.3MW per turbine, South of Langridge Cross, Harberton, Totnes
A couple of months ago TRESOC were one of the organisers of "The Great Wind Debate" about the pros and cons of renewable energy in general, and onshore wind power in particular, which took place in the Great Hall at Dartington. A number of videos are available of that event, and the final question put to the panellists was "What will our grandchildren say?". Here are their answers:
As chair for the evening Jonathan Dimbleby had the last word. Amongst other things he said that:
I hesitate to think whether they will be in a position to put questions to us. I hesitate to imagine the world in which they will be. A world of societies which are dislocated, of movements of people, of disturbances that we do not yet fully understand.
It's been strengthening very slowly, but at 11:20 AM CDT yesterday Isaac was officially declared to have become a category 1 hurricane. Whilst still a mere tropical storm, here's what it did to Haiti a few short days ago:
According to ABC News:
There are over 400,000 Haitians still living in makeshift tent cities. Many of them had no way to escape this storm.
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS ESTIMATED NEAR GALLIANO LOUISIANA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOUMA LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. ISAAC HAS BEEN STATIONARY DURING THE PAST HOUR…BUT A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER THIS MORNING.
According to ABC News once again:
This could be the first major test for those multi billion dollar levees, beefed up since breaking under Katrina seven years ago this week
Note that at approximately 0:15 in the above video Barack Obama says that:
Now's not the time to temp fate. Now's not the time to dismiss official warnings. You need to take this seriously.
Officially Isaac is still only a tropical storm. However according to the latest public advisory bulletin from the United States National Hurricane Centre:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
SOUTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHERN BORDER
HAITI
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
INTERESTS IN CUBA…JAMAICA…AND ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.
The current predictions show Isaac reaching hurricane strength shortly before crossing the south coast of the Dominican Republic tomorrow:
NHC predicted path of Tropical Storm Isaac at 5 AM EDT on August 23rd 2012
