August 30, 2011
Katia Forecast to Become a Major Hurricane by Sunday
Yesterday I became involved in a debate over on the Economist website about "hurricane hype". The article is entitled "The Storm-clouds clear" and was based on the premise that Hurricane Irene didn't turn out to be as bad as predicted. I was definitely on the side of those expressing the view that you should:
Never underestimate a hurricane.
Some other points of view included:
I wonder if people will take future hurricane warnings, such as mandatory evacuations, as seriously in the future. Many people feel like at least the media, if not the politicians as well, "cried wolf."
I believe that producers and editors of TV & print media are exquisitely sensitive to what catches the attention of their audience, both actual and potential. They adjust content and coverage to maximize views and revenues.
Using "opportunity cost" analysis, the government should do (almost) nothing to prepare for hurricanes. The idea that because hurricanes are hard to predict, so let's just evacuate every coastal city, is nonsense. Government needs to let the hurricanes do what they will, and then quickly fix any damage that might have been done. The cost of all the preparations far exceed any damage Irene did or might have done.
The models that predict a hurricane's path and strength are tweaked by the insurance companies, or their hired experts, to err strongly on the more dangerous side. Then these models are used to justify increases in the price of hurricane insurance.
This was a practice run, BUT WHAT ARE THE RULING CLASS PREPARING US FOR?
Hype on top of hype? Whilst the debate raged Connecticut Light & Power were reporting that:
At the peak, the storm left more than 622,000 CL&P customers without power. This sets a record, surpassing the 477,000 CL&P customers who lost power from Hurricane Gloria in 1985.
Please forgive me for adding yet more wind to this media storm, but another set of storm clouds are now gathering on the distant horizon. As I suggested yesterday "Area 1" has now morphed into "Tropical Storm Katia". Here are the NHC's current projections:
5 day forecast for Tropical Storm Katia at 5 AM EDT on Tuesday August 30th 2011
If you look closely you can see that "Tropical Storm" Katia is currently heading in the direction of the eastern seaboard of the United States on a track slightly to the north of Irene's, and that she is forecast to become a major hurricane by 2 AM on Sunday morning. Are the ruling class preparing us for something? Are the NHC's computer models tweaked by the insurance companies' hired experts. Is the current forecast in any way predictive of what will ultimately happen? Does anyone want to place their bets now?
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Comments on Katia Forecast to Become a Major Hurricane by Sunday »
I had no idea that you can take a special hurricane insurance. If the insurance company will make it possible to insure for bad relationship it will make more sense than a hurricane insurance!
I agree with you that you should never underestimate a hurricane but I also understand the other point of view. In the worst scenario if the hurricane didn't change into a heavy storm when it arrived in NYC and the Government did nothing to protect people, everybody would have criticised them and blamed them too. What is right and what is wrong to do!?
Being i live in Bermuda a Hurricane country, never under estimate a Hurricane. Because when you do, lives not just property are lost.You can replace your house,car etc, but never family and friends. Trust me you do not want to stay, then expect the rescuers to come out in the middle of a Hurricane, because you where too stupid to lock up and leave. I have been home or a safe place with my family and friends while my husband and his buddies voulinteer fireman,have to go out a rescue these stupid people, and risk their lives also to help.Call me selfish, but i want my husband safe and sound at home etc.
HELLO! Hurricane Ready for the KISS people. Stay in a high ground, away from flood or water areas. Make sure you have plenty of water and food. Maybe no electric etc. for days…Turn off your gas lines, if you think your area will be flood. First aid kit maybe needed in car and house. Use flash lights plenty of batteries, safer than candles, you may get fires…Do not go out in the eye of hurricane. Make sure your cell phones are fully charged. For you surfer dude no swimming, hurricanes bring undertow, even a life guard who
knows how to swim out of under tow, will have a hard time rescueing you.Do not drive around police,fire fighters,electric people are trying to keep you safe, you will just get in their way.To save you roof, keep your windows cracked so that the air will not build up, and cause your roof to blow off. After hurricane has safely passed check on your neighbours. Help clear your neighbourhood street, it will help rescuers get to you quicker. Main thing keep in a safe area and stay out of rescuers way.And if your government says keep off the streets, and in your house or safe house ,do not be a idiot, do as your told……
There is an old saying, better to be prepaired for the worse
and hope for the best.I have been through alot of hurricanes
over the years on the ocean and on land. Have seen boats, houses,cars,animals and people lost. Trust me it is no fun….I pray that all the countries now and in the future
are paying attention. I have noticed weather patterns around
the world have been getting stronger, and i am not a end of the world believer. Just watching,what is going on around the
world lately with weather and such.
And for thoughs people who may think i a just another stupid woman. Let's see, i have sailed across the ocean, racing a hurricane home to safe harbour.
I have been certified as a CPR and first aid person.I am also
am one of the firewardens were i work. And many more stuff, and have lived for over 40 years through hurricanes.Be safe every one.
Hi Tina,
On the contrary, you strike me as being extremely sensible!
Thanks very much for taking the time to share your obviously extensive experience in these matters. It's particularly relevant now that some more storms are brewing.
With a bit of luck Katia will fizzle out or pass harmlessly between Bermuda and the Eastern USA. A lot of luck was needed for Irene to do as little damage (sic) as it eventually did. At one point Irene became known as the "halficane" for example. A whole hurricane would have been a whole lot worse. Here's how the NHC reported the event:
Thanks again Tina,
Jim