I've been blogging for some years now about the apparently increasing impact of North Atlantic hurricanes, and in particular their effect on one of the poorest nations on the planet, Haiti.  Today Hurricane Irene has left Haiti in its wake, and according to the United Nations this time around:

Hurricane Irene has left impoverished Haiti relatively unscathed, with only isolated damage from flooding and no widespread serious emergencies in a country that is still struggling to recover from last year’s devastating earthquake.

Now Irene is continuing on her path and threatening the United States of America, by most measures the richest nation on the planet, with rather more than just "isolated damage". According to the National Hurricane Center's latest public advisory:

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY…INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT IS CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER…INCLUDING LONG ISLAND…LONG ISLAND SOUND…BLOCK ISLAND…MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

In anticipation of Irene's imminent impact on the east coast of the USA, Reuters reports that:

From nuclear plants to pipelines and refineries, energy companies braced on Thursday for a potentially devastating Hurricane Irene that is barreling toward the most populated part of the United States.

Gloria, the last hurricane to slam the eastern seaboard in 1985, left at least 2.2 million people without power along the East Coast, and caused $1.84 billion in damages in today's dollar terms.

and according to the NHC once more:

The same broad region is now "well within" the path of Irene.

As if that wasn't sufficient cause for concern, Reuters also points out that:

While the East Coast region has no major offshore oil and gas production like the hurricane-prone Gulf Coast, the stakes are still daunting. The region has around a dozen nuclear plants, a massive oil delivery hub at New York Harbor, and its pipelines and power networks serve more than 100 million Americans.

According to Progress Energy it is:

Taking safety precautions at its two-unit Brunswick nuclear plant in Southport, North Carolina, where the storm is expected to pass nearby on Saturday. The plant, 22 feet above sea level, is built to withstand winds of 128 miles per hour.

According to NHC director Bill Read:

Irene could blast up the East Coast with Category 2 storm force, packing winds of 96 to 110 mph. Being a large hurricane, tropical storm-force winds will extend far inland.

Let's hope, and pray if you're so inclined, that Bill's forecast is reasonably accurate.

According to the Miami Herald:

Former singer Michel ‘Sweet Micky’ Martelly is expected to be the next president of Haiti, observers say, defeating former first lady Mirlande Manigat.

After many months of intimidation, fraud allegations, reruns, recounts, and other delays it appears that later today Michel Martelly will be formally proclaimed as the new President of Haiti.  If that is confirmed the musician will  have a mountain of problems to deal with, but here is the one that concerns us most. According to the official statistics 4766 people have already died in the outbreak of cholera in Haiti. Things seem to be much improved, and only one of those deaths was on March 28th, currently the most recently reported date. However just as it was this time last year the Haitian rainy season is on the way. Unlike last year people in Haiti are already dying from cholera, and the program to improve supplies of clean drinking water and better sanitation is way behind schedule.

If a former movie star can, according to one measure at least, become the greatest President of the United States then there seems to be no reason why a former musician can't do a better job in his new role as leader of his Nation than his predecessors. Surely "Sweet Micky" cannot possibly be worse?

The earthquake that killed over 250,000 people in Haiti struck one year ago. Since then a lot of funding has been promised, and a lot of projects have been started, but a huge amount remains to be done.

In a report today the BBC discusses the lack of progress in reconstructing Haiti, and itemises the funding shortfalls. According to the BBC:

• 188,383 buildings collapsed in the earthquake, of which 105,000 were completely destroyed
• 2 million cubic meters out of a total of 10 million cubic meters of rubble has been cleared so far.
• Donors had provided just over $1 billion of the $1.5 billion required for earthquake relief and recovery.
• Only $1.28 billion of a total of $2.01 billion pledged for 2010 has been disbursed.
• The number of people living in camps has fallen from a peak of 1.5 million to 810,000.
• 2,729 tent schools have been set up, out of a target of 4,000.
• 298 semi-permanent schools have been built, out of a target of 464.
• 15,309 latrines have been set up, out of a target of 34,000
• $44 million out of a total of  $174 million required to tackle the outbreak of cholera in Haiti has been received.

Finally according to the  Haitian Ministry of Public Health 3759 people had died in the cholera epidemic by January 7th 2011.

It seems a further $2.45 billion has been pledged to Haiti during 2011. Let us hope that by this time next year those promises have been fulfilled, and the statistics from Haiti make for cheerier reading than those for last year.

According to Reuters today the United Nations' top humanitarian official thinks that:

Haiti needs a surge of foreign nurses and doctors to stem deaths from a raging cholera epidemic that an international aid operation is struggling to control. Around 1,000 trained nurses and at least 100 more doctors were urgently needed to control the epidemic.

The official statistics are now four days old, but according to those 1415 people have now died from cholera in Haiti, 98 of them under 5 years of age.

Valerie Amos, the U.N.'s Under Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, is visiting Port-au-Prince and said that:

It's not just money, it's crucially people, in terms of getting more doctors, nurses, more people who can help with the awareness-raising and getting information out there. We have to control the outbreak and we have to bring down the percentage of people who are dying, and we have to do that as a matter of urgency. I'm being told it hasn't reached its peak yet, that it will get worse before it gets better.

According to U.N. officials the international response to an appeal by the world body for $164 million to fund a scaled-up cholera response has been insufficient. Ms. Amos said her task was to make sure the international community did not forget about Haiti.

Let's remember: we have fed 1.3 million people, we have given them access to health care, we have given them access to education. Until the cholera outbreak, we hadn't had a major outbreak of disease. All this in a country devastated by an earthquake where you lost significant numbers of people who would have been part of working on the solution.

Despite the increasingly rapid spread of cholera throughout Haiti, it seems the elections scheduled for November 28th will still go ahead as planned. Four candidates have called for the elections to be postponed, but according to Lut Fabert, the head of the EU's diplomatic mission in Haiti:

At the moment, the EU sees no obstacle blocking these elections from happening. The most important thing is that the process advances according to the rules and that there is a good participation of the population. To not have elections now could jeopardize political stability in Haiti.

The European Union is providing a team of seven European electoral experts plus 5 million euros to finance the organization of the elections. However apparently the EU team will not be able to act as formal observers of the Haitian Election because they are unable to cover the entire country.

There are 19 candidates in the presidential contest, but no clear favourite. The vote might therefore go to a second round in January.  I wonder what the cholera death toll in Haiti will be by then, especially if the dollars, doctors and nurses that the United Nations is requesting do not arrive safely in Haiti in the very near future?

The Haitian Ministry of Public Health official statistics for November 14th reveal that the death toll from cholera had already passed 1000 two days ago. 42 deaths on the day, and 1034 in total.  According to the BBC this evening:

United Nations peacekeepers have stepped up security after violent protests on Monday left two Haitians dead.

Some of the demonstrators accused peacekeepers from Nepal of introducing cholera to Haiti for the first time in a century.

At least one of the men was shot dead by the UN peacekeepers. The UN said one man was shot dead by peacekeepers in Haiti's second largest city, Cap Haitien, after he fired at a soldier. However the AFP news agency quoted a local official as saying the young man had been shot in the back and the protesters had been armed with stones.

Another young man was killed by gunfire on a street in Cap Haitien during the clashes, police said. A number of locals and UN peacekeepers were injured in the clashes.

According to Reuters:

Protesters in Haiti, blaming United Nations troops for a cholera epidemic that has killed hundreds of people, attacked U.N. peacekeepers in two cities on Monday.

The U.N. mission blamed the violence in Cap-Haitien and Hinche on political agitators it said were bent on stirring up unrest ahead of presidential and legislative elections set for November 28 in the earthquake-hit Caribbean country.

In Cap-Haitien, Haiti's second city on the north coast, U.N. blue helmets were fired on by armed demonstrators and one demonstrator was killed when a peacekeeper opened fire in self-defense, the U.N. mission (MINUSTAH) said in a statement.

U.N. troops also used tear gas against the protesters.

"MINUSTAH reiterates its firm commitment to support the Haitian national police in maintaining order and security in the country to guarantee the continuation of the electoral process and Haiti's reconstruction," the U.N. statement said.

Officials and residents in Cap-Haitien said earlier on Monday that hundreds of protesters yelling anti-U.N. slogans had set up burning barricades and torched a police station.

"MINUSTAH urges the population to remain vigilant and not to allow itself to be manipulated by the enemies of stability and democracy in the country," the U.N. mission said.

Nevertheless, the violent incidents raise questions about security for the elections, which will choose a successor to President Rene Preval, a 99-member parliament and 11 members of the 30-seat Senate.

Currently it seems everyone in Haiti is blaming everyone else for the terrible suffering the inhabitants are enduring. Protesters blame the U.N. for bringing cholera to Haiti. The U.N. blames "the enemies of stability and democracy" for the protests. In the meantime another 44 people have died in one day. According to Reuters once more:

Analysts say the elections could be the most important in Haiti's history but many see the path to the polls threatened by risks of political violence, as well as the huge humanitarian challenges.

Do you suppose that after the forthcoming  "electoral process" is finally complete all the death and destruction will stop, "stability and democracy" will prevail, and "Haiti's reconstruction" will begin at long last?

Last weekend I attended the World MoneyShow in London. On the night before the event it was confirmed that significant numbers of people had died from cholera in Port-au-Prince.  I've been blogging about this issue for over two years, and in my opinion that means many thousands more will die from the same cause in the not too distant future.

On Friday morning I dressed in black, then headed off past Big Ben and the Houses of Parliament to the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre. I took my video camera with me, and this is the first of a series of videos we will be releasing of my experiences on that day:

Today the Independent asks the question:

Where is the UN? Where is the help?

More on A Black Day in Haiti and at the World MoneyShow

The media can't seem to agree on exactly how many people have now died of cholera, but they do seem to be agreed that the rate of infections and deaths is increasing, in Port-au-Prince as well as in most of the rest of Haiti.

First of all here's some video from AP, showing how things looked on the ground in Haiti earlier today:

A couple of hours ago the BBC reported that:

Cholera is spreading quickly in the Haitian capital of Port-au-Prince, as the death toll rises across the quake-hit country.

More than 80 people have died in the last 24 hours across the country, according to the health ministry, taking the death toll to 724.

Three people have already died of the disease in Port-au-Prince, after it was confirmed in the city early this week.

Officials say six out of 10 regions are now reporting infections.

However earlier in the day Reuters had already reported that:

The death toll in Haiti's cholera epidemic climbed on Thursday, reaching 800, according to a U.S. medical expert who expressed concern about risk of transmission to the United States and other countries.

Fatalities from the diarrheal disease have risen steadily since the start of the outbreak more than three weeks ago in the poor Caribbean nation, which is struggling to recover from the effects of a devastating Jan. 12 earthquake.

Ezra Barzilay, an epidemiologist at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said the health emergency created by the epidemic was worsening.

"As of November 8, we had about 640 deaths. Today we are at 800," he said in a call from Haiti to participants at a medical conference in Biloxi, Mississippi.

It seems as though the BBC's figures are a few hours out of date.

BioSurveillance reports that:

In some areas of Haiti, we have confirmation that in-patient statistics are under-reported by as much as 400%.

There is no question of under-reporting. If we assume the case counts are 1/4 the true community load, then we now have nearly 36k cases shedding pathogen into the environment. We believe the true statistic to be closer to more than 50k based on the degree of under-reporting. This is an uncontrolled, uncontained epidemic of cholera that has exceeded public health capacity to investigate and assess every site reported and every sample received.

Evidence now suggests the epidemic has crossed the border into the Dominican Republic, which was expected.

Apart from the confusion over the numbers, this all raises one big question in my mind. This latest catastrophe to befall Haiti was easily predictable. Cholera is easily treatable.

You know what's going to happen next. So do the Disasters Emergency Committee.

Why on Earth has this been allowed to happen?

The BBC reports this evening that the cholera outbreak in Haiti is now entrenched in the capital Port-au-Prince:

Doctors are treating 73 people for the disease, amid fears that it could spread across the quake-hit city. Dozens of suspected cases are also being investigated in Port-au-Prince, which has feared an outbreak since October.

At long last the mainstream British media are doing some in depth reporting. Here's Channel 4's Jon Snow on the ground in Haiti, including an interview with Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive:

The Haitian health ministry now says that 583 people in total have died from cholera in Haiti, and the health minister Ariel Henry said that a sizeable outbreak in Port-au-Prince appeared likely.

Jon Kim Andrus, the deputy director of the Pan American Health Organisation said that:

We have every reason to expect that the widespread flooding has increased the risk of cholera spreading

The PAHO says there could be an "upsurge" in cholera cases in Haiti in the coming days as a result of water and sanitation problems caused by Hurricane Tomas at the end of last week.

In other news from Haiti Reuters reports that the death toll from the flooding caused by Hurricane Tomas has now reached 20.  Reuters also suggest that:

With U.N. peacekeepers and humanitarian agencies stretched between the storm and cholera response and the post-quake recovery, questions have arisen over whether Haiti can hold credible presidential and legislative elections as scheduled on Nov. 28.

Despite those questions the U.N.'s top representative in the country, Edmond Mulet, said no discussions were being held with the government and electoral authorities about postponing the polls:

There are no objective reasons not to have elections on Nov. 28. Technically, logistically, security, budget, all is in place

Analysts say the elections could be the most important in Haiti's history, but many see the path to the polls threatened by risks of political violence, as well as the huge humanitarian challenges.

As if all that wasn't enough to worry about the National Hurricane Center is currently keeping a close watch on an area of thunderstorms in the N.E. Caribbean:

There is a 10% chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. This disturbance is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico during the next day or two.

Kelly Slater has just won the world tour event in Puerto Rico, and with it his tenth world surfing championship.

The contest was suspended for two days earlier this week because three times world champion Andy Irons had just died. In his hotel room, apparently of dengue fever.

I surf because. R.I.P. Andy.

This morning Reuters reports that the death toll from the cholera epidemic is now over 500:

Amid widespread relief that the hurricane largely spared crowded camps in the Haitian capital housing 1.3 million quake survivors, the international humanitarian operation was turning its attention back to the two-week-old epidemic, which has killed just over 500 people and sickened more than 7,000.

More on Haiti Cholera Death Toll Now Over 500